Future trends and expected technological evolution - Consideration of cost-trend
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Future trends and expected technological evolution - Consideration of cost-trend
The approximate cost trend of the communications satellite is shown in Fig.1. The generation power of the satellite limits the total capacity of the satellite. Thus Fig.1 shows the cost vs. generation power. The cost/capacity is also shown in Fig.1. Although the estimation is very rough, Fig.1 shows that the cost/capacity decreased definitely in the future as the capacity of the satellite increases. The cost/capacity will be dropped to $1 S-3 Million/Gbps.
The 2G.1s satellite has a capacity of 120 Gbps
(max.). This means that 800 OC-3 (155 Mbps)
links are accommodated. If 100 subscribers
share a 155 Mbps link, 80.000 subscribers can
be accommodated. If the investment of satellite
cost $183M is made payback in 10 years, rate of
each subscriber is approximately $19/month.
This cost is only a payback of satellite cost. But
it looks to be fairly cost-competitive to the other
means.
According to the examination above, we can
forecast that the 3G satellite (GE0 platform)
will have more cost-competitivenessT. herefore,
there will be significant to study such a future
satellite of large capacity. [1]
References
[1] T.Iida
"Cost consideration for future communications satellite".
